THE STAIR STEP DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL AND THEN BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. OUR OLD FRIEND, THE POLAR VORTEX CURRENTLY IN NORTHWESTERN CANADA IS ABOUT TO TAKE A HIT. AN UPWARD PROPAGATING ROSSBY WAVE IS PREDICTED TO PERTURB AND ELONGATE IT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD (AND BEYOND). THIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEND PART OF THE VORTEX INTO NORTHEASTERN CANADA. COUPLED WITH DISTURBANCES CRESTING THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE, THEY WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE LATEST ECMWF STRATOSPHERIC MODEL SOLUTION POLAR VORTEX HIT IS SO INTENSE, THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER THAT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING (STRONGER AROUND 10MB FOR NOW) IS PREDICTED TO START. WHETHER IT CAN WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE TROPOSPHERE AND WHERE IT DOES, WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE'S WEATHER AND TELECONNECTION PATTERNS INTO FEBRUARY.
I used to have what I thought of as my very own weatherman, a blog written by a meteorologist. He would link to the obscure language you see above, which comes from the National Weather Service, but translate it so we’d know if it was going to snow or not. When a storm was coming he’d get up at 4 am and give us the latest thinking; then as it approached he’d set up a “live chat.” I loved it. I’d write “how many inches in Swarthmore?” and he’d answer – and was nearly always right.
He shut the blog down just before our first snowstorm this year, saying it was too much of a burden. He does post on Twitter, occasionally linking to a longer Facebook post. Seems like this would be way more work for him, not to mention me, sifting through all the un-weather-related tweets. Today, nothing but 140-character posts about fog.
I feel cut adrift. Now, when a storm is coming, or may be coming, I’m on my own. It’s like reading the Merck Manual instead of talking to your doctor.