Nate Silver came through, of course, posting five times since my measly carping at him yesterday. He even stayed up all night, apparently, waiting for the latest polls.
If you look at Pollster.com, the trend is really depressing:
But Nate always comes through with a different perspective. He took all these polls and plotted them separately, showing that Coakley’s downward slide has stopped. He writes:
I’m not entirely comfortable with taking Coakley’s internals at face value (that holds for the Pajamas numbers too). But keeping those caveats in mind, it’s not that difficult to draw an übertrendline that is roughly consistent with the story told by each of the individual trendlines. It would probably look something like this:
I don’t quite get this, since the individual trendline stories he’s referring to are the two he’s just said he’s not comfortable with. (But Nate Silver is a lot smarter than I am, so maybe I’m missing something.) [But here’s an update: Research 2000 now has Coakley and Brown at 48% each, after they had Coakley ahead by 8 last week. If the little red dot at +8 for Coakley on Nate’s chart represents that poll, his übertrendline theory is shot.]
I remember what it was like here in Pennsylvania before the Democratic primary and again before the presidential election – we never answered the phone, even for personal messages from Bill Clinton. All we can hope for is that the people who are going to vote for Coakley hate phone calls more than Brown supporters, so they’re not represented in these samples.
It’s a long shot.